Will Exit Polls turn true in Five State elections?
Counting will start in couple of hours from now in the five states which went to polls a month back. Attention of not only political analysts and political parties are on the bitterly fought elections but also people of the country as it is viewed as the virtual semi final clash before the 2019 general elections.
These are the first major elections after the surgical strikes and demonetisation and everyone is interested to findout which way people titled. Many media channels and psephologists have undertaken pre polls and exit polls and many predicted BJP wave in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa. Only in Punjab BJP is supposed to lose as SAD-BJP combination is bound to data-face anti-incumbency wave.
Now the question is Will Exit Polls turn true in Five State elections? Many say exit polls won't decide the winners of 2017 assembly elections as on many occasions experts got the numbers terribly wrong.
The exit polls were accurate with the results of Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and West Bengal assembly elections in 2016. However in Tamil Nadu everyone got shock as AIADMK winning 136 seats contrary to the predictions that it would be routed from power. Exit polls predicted the following in TN.
The Axis-My India exit poll saw the DMK-Congress alliance getting between 120 and 140 seats of the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly. It saw AIADMK getting 90 to 110 seats, IANS reported at the time. The News Nation TV exit poll gave 114-118 seats to the DMK-Congress alliance and 95-99 seats to the AIADMK.
In Bihar elections 2015, RJD-JD(U) alliance swept the polls getting 178 seats contrary to the predictions where The ABP-Nielsen poll said the 'grand alliance' would get 130 seats and the BJP and allies would get 108. Times Now along with C-Voter gave 122 seats to Nitish's 'grand alliance' and 111 to the BJP and allies.
Lok Sabha 2014 is the classic example where many failed to gauge the impact of Modi wave. While many predicted NDA coming to power, no one came close except for News 24-Tdays's and Chakankays's got the poll predictions right.
These were the actual and exit poll results in 2014 lok sabha elections.
Exit Poll 2014 NDA UPA
News24-Today's Chanakya 340 70
Times Now-ORG 257 135
C-Voter-India TV 289 101
Actual tally 334 60
So lets keep our fingers crossed before coming to any conclusion.