Voice of the Day: These four industries, in the opinion of this smallcase manager, are attractive contra plays for 2025.

Balasahana Suresh

In an interview with Moneycontrol, Robin Arya, the smallcase manager and founder and CEO of GoalFi, stated that capital markets, wealth management, home financing, and SME lending are all attractive counterplays for 2025.

He asserts that these industries are well-positioned for rapid expansion, supported by both growing financial penetration and structural tendencies.In addition, he thinks the insurance industry will continue to be a robust growth driver in 2025. The demand for life and health insurance is being driven by increased penetration, especially in tier-2 and tier-3 cities. With more than 15 years of experience in the financial services and technology sectors, Robin stated that post-pandemic awareness and government programs like Ayushman Bharat are further accelerating growth.

As contra plays, which sectors are you keeping an eye on?

Wealth management, home financing, capital markets, and SME lending are all strong counterarguments for 2025.>> capital Markets: Tier-2 and tier-3 cities are driving untapped growth, and SIPs and ETFs are increasing retail involvement.

>> Wealth management: Wealth platforms emphasising wallet PLATFORM' target='_blank' title='digital-Latest Updates, Photos, Videos are a click away, CLICK NOW">digital adoption and diversification are poised to prosper as UHNIs and individual investors' desire for advisory-led portfolios rises.

>> home Finance: The ongoing demand for home loans is being driven by urbanisation and government incentives for affordable homes. Housing finance firms that cater to middle-class and first-time homebuyers stand to gain.>> SME Lending: By emphasising tech-driven credit distribution, NBFCs are significantly contributing to financial inclusion. A promising growth story in this sector is created by the government's backing of MSMEs and the increased demand for financing from small and medium-data-sized businesses.

These industries are well-positioned for rapid expansion, supported by both growing financial penetration and structural factors.Is it a wise investment for 2025?

In 2025, the indian IT industry might make a significant resurgence. Although performance was negatively impacted by global economic issues in 2024, the worst appears to be behind us. With emerging areas like AI, cloud, and cybersecurity gaining traction, indian IT companies are well-positioned to profit from a resurgence in global tech spending.

IT firms with a variety of revenue sources, robust transaction pipelines, and exposure to rapidly expanding industries are desirable to investors. Even though there are still global uncertainties, IT remains a tempting investment for long-term investors due to rising prices.Are you optimistic about the insurance industry?

Indeed, the insurance industry is still expected to develop significantly in 2025. The demand for health and life insurance is being driven by rising penetration, especially in tier-2 and tier-3 cities. Growth is also being aided by government programs like Ayushman Bharat and post-pandemic awareness.

Additionally, insurance firms are using technology to improve client satisfaction and expedite delivery, increasing product accessibility. The industry is well-positioned for long-term growth thanks to robust distribution networks and widespread adoption of technology.Do you think the upcoming year will bring additional difficulties for the stock market? Does this imply that a return over 10% is improbable?

Global uncertainty, high interest rates, and fiscal pressures may pose problems for the larger equity market in 2025, but there are also pockets of value and sectoral changes that provide big chances.

industries with a strong chance of outperforming include wealth management, financial markets, and healthcare. To reap significant returns in 2025, investors should give priority to these high-growth industries and reputable businesses rather than concentrating only on broad indices.What plan ought to be in place for 2025?

Diversification, value investing, and sectoral possibilities should be the main focusses of the 2025 plan. Pay attention to industries like wealth management, capital markets, and healthcare that are seeing rapid structural expansion. Additionally, government incentives for affordable housing and tech-led credit disbursement are driving new prospects in SME lending and home finance.Investors could leverage SIPs for stable investments and balance debt and equity exposure to reduce risks. Alpha can be added through tactical allocation to undervalued sectors such as speciality chemicals or mid-cap IT. In 2025, a focused, selected strategy will beat more general indices.Do you believe that FMCG isn't a good investment right now?

Because of their high prices and low demand for urban consumption, FMCG might not be a good investment right now. Although the industry has had a large defensive re-rating, it is unlikely to beat larger markets in 2025 due to its poor volume growth.

However, a future recovery in rural consumption, supported by government measures and a better harvest cycle, could benefit a few FMCG brands with significant rural penetration and critical product ranges.What are your expectations for this week's US Federal Reserve?

It is generally anticipated that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates by 25 basis points during its december 17–18, 2024, meeting, bringing the federal funds rate down to a target range of 4.25–4.5%.

A dovish approach would improve market sentiment, which would be advantageous for industries like banking and NBFCs. On the other hand, any sign of ongoing inflation worries might make investors cautious, which would especially hurt industries that are sensitive to interest rates.In conclusion, even if a 25 basis point rate cut is expected, the Fed's future monetary policy direction will have a significant impact on market dynamics as the new year draws near.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol.com's investing experts' opinions and advice are their own and do not represent the website's or its administrators'. Before making any financial decisions, users are advised by Moneycontrol.com to consult with qualified professionals.


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