Telangana - Indo-German study predicts monsoon to hit after June 20
According to a 10-year Indo-German research, the monsoon is altering in tandem with climate change, and telangana may have a delayed start to this year's monsoon. The study also emphadata-sizes the importance of projections in assisting farmers in selecting the best time to sow their crops. It continues, "The government can use the unique monsoon onset forecast to its advantage for strategic planning and disaster response."
The research concluded that the main causes of flooding were extremely intense monsoon rain events, defined as more than 80mm/day, which now occur once every two years, according to a post by Ramesh Chennamaneni, a former advisor on agriculture to the State government. The report also issues a warning, stating that until 2050, the State should be ready for a 60% rise in the frequency of these incidents.
"The IMD definition states that there are 1.2 days of exceptionally hot weather each year. These days have a direct negative impact on health as well as several secondary effects, such as accidents and a reduction in work output. In the high-emission scenario, we anticipate around 20 days till 2050 and 40 days in 2100, compared to the current average of days. The report notes that the number with values of 8 and 13 days, respectively, under the low-emission scenario remains a significant difficulty.
These results highlight the need to adjust the definition of monsoon start and withdrawal criteria. In light of climate change, climatological norms—a 30-year average of a meteorological variable—need to be reevaluated. Severe storms and floods during monsoon retreats, like the ones that are occurring right now in telangana, are becoming more common as the planet warms. Per Elena Surovyatkina, head of the Indo-German study team, "a long-term forecast could help the government to do strategic planning, consolidate resources, and strengthen capacity to respond effectively to disasters," Chennamaneni's article states.
It is predicted that telangana, Central india, and particularly delhi may see a delay in the monsoon's arrival in 2024 due to prevailing circumstances. The negative temperature anomaly across central and mainly northern areas of india from march to April, as seen on the map below, is the cause of the delayed monsoon. As a result, it will cause the monsoon season to begin later in June. Furthermore, the report states that the dry period that occurred in these areas in june will further add to the delay.
Because dry periods and the start of the monsoon occur at different times throughout india, Chennamaneni, citing the study, states that it is essential for farmers to be aware of these dates.
They can sow their crops at the ideal moment according to these projections. He notes in his piece that the government may use the unique monsoon onset forecast to get important insights for disaster response and strategic planning.
They can sow their crops at the ideal moment according to these projections. He notes in his piece that the government may use the unique monsoon onset forecast to get important insights for disaster response and strategic planning.