Dhamaal 4 is predicted to open between ₹25–32 crore on Day 1, according to ABP News, making it potentially the biggest Bollywood comedy opening of 2026. The film's franchise recall and multi-starrer safety net virtually guarantee a massive start — a luxury Ajay Devgn's recent solo ventures like Maidaan and Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha never enjoyed.

Here is a number that should sting every Bollywood auteur who ever pitched a 'meaningful solo vehicle' to Ajay Devgn: somewhere between ₹25 crore and ₹32 crore. That is what trade analysts quoted by ABP News expect Dhamaal 4 to collect on its very first day in theatres. To put that in perspective, Devgn's passion project Maidaan — a sports biopic that earned genuinely warm reviews — managed roughly ₹5 crore on its opening day in 2024. Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha, his romantic drama with Tabu later that year, opened even lower. The man is the same. The audience is the same. The difference is the wrapper — and that wrapper is the multi-starrer franchise comedy, Bollywood's last remaining cheat code for a guaranteed opening.

Dhamaal as a brand has been doing this trick since 2007. The original was a modest hit; Double Dhamaal in 2011 was louder; Total Dhamaal in 2019 crossed ₹150 crore lifetime despite decidedly mixed reviews. Nobody watches a Dhamaal film expecting Satyajit Ray. They watch it expecting Javed Jaffrey falling off something, Arshad Warsi deadpanning through chaos, and Devgn anchoring the mayhem with his trademark cool-uncle energy. That expectation, pre-built over nearly two decades and three films, is worth more on opening day than any trailer, any review, any Instagram reel. It is, in industry parlance, a 'pre-sold ticket.'

And that is precisely the mechanism India Herald's read of this story zeroes in on: Ajay Devgn has, whether by instinct or by design, constructed a career architecture that uses franchise comedies — Dhamaal and Golmaal — as structural load-bearing pillars. They absorb the financial shock of his solo experiments. Maidaan can lose money. Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha can vanish without a trace. Bholaa can underperform. None of it matters to the bottom line as long as one Golmaal or one Dhamaal lands every couple of years and prints ₹150-plus crore. It is not glamorous strategy. It is ruthlessly effective accounting.

Inside Talk

Trade circles are buzzing with a blunter version of this theory. The whisper in film-industry corridors, according to sources familiar with distribution patterns, is that exhibitors now treat a Devgn solo release and a Devgn franchise release as entirely different products. 'One gets the prime 9 PM Friday show across multiplexes. The other gets polite mid-week screen counts and a prayer,' a senior distribution source is understood to have remarked to trade journalists. The implication is stark: even the people whose job is to sell his films have internalised the split.

Fans, meanwhile, are convinced the pattern is not accidental. Social media speculation suggests Devgn's team deliberately schedules franchise outings to follow solo disappointments — a palate cleanser for the trade, a reassurance to exhibitors, a reset of the narrative. Whether that scheduling theory holds up to scrutiny is debatable, but the emotional logic is sound: after a string of films that asked audiences to take Devgn seriously, Dhamaal 4 arrives and says, simply, 'relax, laugh, bring the family.' The relief, it seems, is worth ₹30 crore on Day 1.

(This section reflects industry chatter and unverified speculation, not confirmed fact.)

The Nostalgia Machine and Its Limits

What makes this phenomenon worth examining beyond Devgn's personal ledger is what it reveals about Bollywood's broader dependence on franchise recall. Consider the evidence from recent years: Gadar 2 opened to a staggering ₹40-plus crore on the back of pure nostalgia for a 2001 original. Stree 2 became 2024's biggest Hindi film by leveraging a horror-comedy brand. Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 rode franchise recognition to a massive start despite lukewarm word-of-mouth. The pattern is unmistakable — the Indian audience, burned by too many expensive originals that promised the moon and delivered a PowerPoint presentation, has retreated to the comfort of known brands. A sequel, a franchise, a 'part 4' — these are not creative choices anymore. They are financial instruments.

Devgn understands this better than most. His solo filmography since 2022 reads like a cautionary tale: Runway 34 (underperformed), Thank God (disaster), Bholaa (below expectations), Maidaan (commercial failure despite critical praise), Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha (near-invisible). Not one of these managed even half of what Total Dhamaal collected in its opening weekend. The gap is not about quality — Maidaan was arguably the finest film of Devgn's recent career. The gap is about what the audience is willing to risk ₹350 of ticket money on. And the answer, increasingly, is: nothing they have not already seen a version of before.

What This Sets in Motion

If Dhamaal 4 does land in the ₹25–32 crore range on Day 1, as ABP News projects, it will not just validate Devgn's franchise strategy — it will deepen Bollywood's structural addiction to sequels. Watch for this: every major star's upcoming slate will be audited by trade analysts not for originality but for 'franchise potential.' Studios will greenlight Part 3s and Part 4s with even less creative justification than before. The message to every A-lister will be crystalline — your solo credibility is a nice-to-have; your franchise slot is survival.

For Devgn specifically, India Herald's assessment is that this cements a career model that is less 'artist' and more 'portfolio manager.' He will continue to take the occasional prestige swing — a Maidaan here, a serious drama there — knowing the Dhamaal and Golmaal franchises will underwrite the losses. It is a smart, cold, deeply unsentimental way to run a 30-year career in an industry that eats its own. The question the rest of Bollywood should be asking itself is simpler and more uncomfortable: if the only reliable way to open big in 2026 is to remind the audience of something they already loved in 2007, what exactly is the industry building for the future?

Reported and written with AI assistance under India Herald's editorial standards; a human editor governs publication.

Key Takeaways

• Dhamaal 4 is projected to open at ₹25–32 crore on Day 1 (ABP News), potentially 5–6x larger than Ajay Devgn's recent solo openers like Maidaan (~₹5 crore).
• Devgn's franchise comedies (Dhamaal, Golmaal) function as financial shock absorbers for a solo filmography that has consistently underperformed since 2022.
• Bollywood's broader trend confirms the pattern: Gadar 2, Stree 2, and Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 all leveraged franchise nostalgia for massive openings, signalling an industry-wide retreat from original IP risk.
• If Dhamaal 4 delivers as projected, expect an acceleration of sequel-greenlighting across studios — originality will be an even harder sell in pitch meetings.