BJP-TDP-JSP Alliance - How it alters Electoral Equations for YSRCP

SIBY JEYYA
Following extensive discussions, the bharatiya janata party (BJP) formally reunited with Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena party (JSP) and Chandrababu Naidu's telugu desam party (TDP) in andhra pradesh on Saturday.
 
In a joint statement, the three parties announced that they will run together in the state that sends 25 MPs to the lok sabha as well as the next general elections. Although they had also run together in the 2014 elections, the tdp left the partnership in 2018.
 
The three parties' seat-sharing arrangements "will be deliberated within a day or two," according to the succinct statement.

In a post on X Saturday, Naidu wrote: “The alliance between bjp, tdp and JSP isn’t just an alliance but rather a partnership between three stakeholders committed to serving andhra pradesh and the country…. I’m pleased to rejoin nda today.”


The india Herald was informed by insiders in the bjp and tdp, however, that the BJP-JSP should have eight seats in the lok sabha, with the tdp holding the remaining seventeen. It is expected that the bjp will run for six seats.
 
A top tdp politician who was in delhi with Naidu said to ThePrint, "The bjp succeeded in extracting two more seats over what we offered them," under the condition of anonymity.
 
According to reports, the agreement will provide the JSP-BJP combination with a total of 30 seats in the assembly. There are 175 members in the andhra pradesh legislature.

The agreement has been sealed "to ensure that anti-Jagan vote is not split at any cost," according to tdp officials, even though it will become clear which seat would belong to which party in a few days.
Candidate names for 99 seats, including five JSP seats, have already been revealed by the TDP-JSP. Last month, Naidu and Pawan announced jointly at a news conference that the JSP will run in three lok sabha seats and 24 assembly seats.
The bjp is left with six assembly seats and five lok sabha seats. The sources claim that JSP may have to give up one of its three seats to the BJP.

YSRCP minister Ambati Rambabu described the TDP-BJP-JSP combination as “illicit and dishonest” and said they will “data-face alone and overthrow in the polls” in remarks to the media on Saturday.
 

In addition to being unpopular when they established the government in 2014, the partnership also proved to be ineffective, breaking up spitefully in the middle. When amit shah came to Tirupati, Naidu had his men stone him. Pawan also chastised the Centre, comparing their financial assistance and other support to rotting laddus. They have now made adjustments to overcome jagan," he remarked. Ambati was alluding to the incident that occurred in May 2018 at Tirupati, the temple town, when some tdp activists were accused of throwing stones at Shah's convoy.
 
Similar to Odisha, andhra pradesh will cast votes for both the lok sabha and its assembly at the same time next month.

Old Friends Reunite
The tdp and bjp have a long history together. According to the joint statement, the tdp joined the nda in 1996 and the two parties have collaborated well during the governments of atal bihari vajpayee and narendra Modi.
 
Ten years ago, in 2014, when chandrababu naidu became the first chief minister of the truncated state after the bifurcation, the TDP-BJP-JSP combination proved to be successful. With 15 tdp lok sabha MPs, Naidu supported the narendra modi administration. (JSP backed the TDP-BJP alliance but refrained from running.)
 
In addition to four assembly seats, the bjp itself won two of the four seats it ran for out of the 25 segments in Andhra Pradesh. In addition, it was given two ministerial positions in Naidu's administration, and tdp was included in Modi's cabinet.

Where Does this Leave Jagan?

Yuvajana Sramika Rythu congress party (YSRCP) chief minister Jaganmohan reddy is viewing Naidu's ability to close the agreement with the bjp as a setback. Despite not being an official ally, jagan has been a staunch supporter of Modi on several legislative measures and problems in Parliament.
 
The YSRCP leaders anticipated that the tdp would be restrained by the bjp, which was in charge of the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and Enforcement Directorate (ED) among other agencies. The ruling party itself showed little interest in allying with the bjp, despite the latter's sizable minority electoral base.

Leaders of the tdp and YSRCP, as reported by india Herald, agreed that the bjp and Modi had limited electoral appeal in andhra pradesh, a state traditionally opposed to communal politics. While the inauguration of the ayodhya Ram Mandir has garnered commendation for Modi within the Hindu community, indicating a socio-cultural impact, party officials and experts assert that it has little electoral bearing.
 
In the 2019 elections, the bjp ran a lone candidate and received zero votes in both the lok sabha and the ap legislature, failing to get even 1% of the state's total votes. The YSRCP received 49.95 percent of the vote that year, tdp 39.17 percent, and JSP about 6 percent.
 

But since it runs the agencies, the BJP's backing is essential. Thus, even if it means losing Muslim votes, it is best to have them on your side, a tdp lawmaker told ThePrint.
 
Naidu is concerned about the continued departure of Muslim votes, though.
 
Muslims make up more than 9% of the population of andhra pradesh, and as the rayalaseema area is home to more than 50 MLAs, their votes are particularly significant there.
 
There is a sizable minority community in the area that data-borders karnataka and north tamil Nadu, particularly in metropolitan centers like Kurnool, Nandyala, Adoni, Kadapa, Rayachoti, and Proddutur. To the extent that tdp candidates' campaign cars in rayalaseema in 2014 had no banners featuring Modi on them.
 

"Our Muslim vote share will inevitably go up from 65 percent to 75-80 percent now that tdp has allied with bjp," a close political associate of jagan, speaking to india Herald from the CMO in an official capacity, said.
Nonetheless, a local bjp mp expressed optimism that certain Muslim women, who have benefitted from social programs like Ujjwala and the elimination of triple talaq, among others, are anticipated to vote for the combination.
Prior to the agreement, jagan had been pleading with the people to re-elect him on the basis of the "99% fulfilment" of his welfare pledges made in the previous elections. The polls are "a battle between their son/brother and all other forces coming together to defeat him," the YSRCP chairman is reminding the populace.
 
 



 
 
 
 
 

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