How will BJP do in Congress states in Lok Sabha polls?
The bjp appears assured of winning the Centre for a third time in a row. What happens in 'enemy turf' for the bjp might determine whether it wins a hat-trick with a comfortable margin. Three states—Karnataka, telangana, and Himachal Pradesh—are governed by the Congress. It is a coalition member of the jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) administration. Then there are states ruled by the AAP, such punjab and Delhi. Then there are the Left-wing parties, the DMK and the trinamool congress, respectively, ruling states like kerala, tamil Nadu, and West Bengal.
There are nine states where the bjp does not hold power, if we were to set andhra pradesh and odisha aside for the sake of ignoring the kind of clashes they are likely to experience.
The amount that it may increase its total tally by will depend on how much it wins in these states.
Let's examine how the bjp would perform in this area if the lok sabha elections of 2024 were held in January. We utilise the february 2024 edition of the india Today Mood of the Nation Poll, which is the final one conducted prior to the significant general election of 2024.
BJP IN THE congress STATES
The bjp appears to have an easy ride in the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh.
Similar to how it did in the 2019 lok sabha election, the bjp is probably going to win all four lok sabha seats in Himachal Pradesh.
In the november 2023 assembly election, the congress took over karnataka from the BJP. The national democratic alliance (NDA) would receive three seats less than it did in 2019.
The india alliance would get four seats, up three from the 2019 polls, while the nda would win 24 seats.
Similar to how it did in the 2019 lok sabha election, the bjp is probably going to win all four lok sabha seats in Himachal Pradesh.
In the november 2023 assembly election, the congress took over karnataka from the BJP. The national democratic alliance (NDA) would receive three seats less than it did in 2019.
The india alliance would get four seats, up three from the 2019 polls, while the nda would win 24 seats.
Telangana would be the Congress's largest win. The number of seats the congress would win would increase to ten from three in 2019.
In telangana, however, the bjp would drop a seat and end up with three.
There would remain a status quo in terms of the number of seats in jharkhand, a state where the congress is a jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) junior ally.
With a 56% vote share, the nda would continue to hold 12 lok sabha seats, while the opposition alliance would preserve the two seats it gained in 2019.
The bjp loses four seats overall in the four states where the congress is in power.
In telangana, however, the bjp would drop a seat and end up with three.
There would remain a status quo in terms of the number of seats in jharkhand, a state where the congress is a jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) junior ally.
With a 56% vote share, the nda would continue to hold 12 lok sabha seats, while the opposition alliance would preserve the two seats it gained in 2019.
The bjp loses four seats overall in the four states where the congress is in power.
BJP IN WEST BENGAL, tamil NADU, KERALA
The DMK leads the india bloc in tamil Nadu, where the nda will receive zero seats. This also applied to the lok sabha election of 2019.
The nda will come up empty in kerala as well, just like it did in the lok sabha election of 2019.
The nda would receive 19 seats in West Bengal, one seat higher than it did in 2019, where the mamata Banerjee-led trinamool congress is the BJP's principal opponent.
Therefore, the bjp would gain one seat in each of the three non-Congress states as a result of West Bengal.
The nda will come up empty in kerala as well, just like it did in the lok sabha election of 2019.
The nda would receive 19 seats in West Bengal, one seat higher than it did in 2019, where the mamata Banerjee-led trinamool congress is the BJP's principal opponent.
Therefore, the bjp would gain one seat in each of the three non-Congress states as a result of West Bengal.