🚗 Will India Have 5 Crore Old and Unfit Vehicles on Roads by 2030? Get the Facts

G GOWTHAM
India’s vehicle population is growing fast — and so is the number of older, non‑compliant, and potentially unfit vehicles. While 5 crore (50 million) old vehicles is a future projection often talked about, here’s what the data says and what to expect.

📈 1. End‑of‑Life vehicles Could Nearly Double by 2030

According to a NITI Aayog report, the number of end‑of‑life vehicles (ELVs) — vehicles past their useful and safe lifespan — could climb from around 23 million in 2025 to roughly 50 million by 2030 if current trends continue.

👉 That’s about 5 crore vehicles, mostly older cars, two‑wheelers, and commercial vehicles nearing the end of their lifecycle.

🔍 2. “Unfit” vs. “Old”: What’s the Difference?

  • Old vehicles are those past a certain age (e.g., >15–20 years).
  • Unfit vehicles are those that fail safety, emissions, or fitness tests.
Not all old vehicles are automatically unfit — they must be tested and certified. But without effective scrapping, many old vehicles stay on the road despite being inefficient or unsafe.

🛞 3. Right Now: Nearly 70% of vehicles Are Non‑Compliant

New data shows that of India’s ~40.7 crore vehicles, 70% are not compliant with basic norms (like pollution control or fitness certification) — even if they’re not technically “old.”

This suggests a growing compliance gap long before vehicles reach 15–20 years of age.

🧪 4. Old vehicles Are a Big pollution & Safety Concern

Older vehicles — especially those built before modern emission standards — contribute disproportionately to pollution and road safety risks:

  • They often have outdated engines and safety systems
  • They emit far more pollutants than newer, compliant vehicles
  • They may fail fitness tests if they remain unchecked
This is part of why policymakers are pushing for stricter testing and scrappage.

🛠️ 5. government Is Pushing Vehicle Scrappage to Tackle the Problem

To prevent unchecked growth of old vehicles, india has launched a Voluntary Vehicle Fleet Modernisation Programme (Vehicle Scrapping Policy). It aims to:

  • Phase out unfit, polluting vehicles
  • Recycle and reuse materials
  • Provide incentives for owners to scrap old cars at registered centers
This policy helps reduce the number of old vehicles — but progress so far has been slow.

📊 6. Current Scrappage Numbers vs. Target Removals

  • About 3 lakh unfit vehicles have been scrapped recently.
  • Government estimates put the number of unfit, polluting vehicles that need scrapping at around 97 lakh (9.7 million).
Even if all these are removed, that’s far short of 50 million by 2030 — unless scrappage scales up massively.

📍 7. So Will There Be 5 Crore Old vehicles in 2030?

🔎 Current projections from credible sources indicate:

  • India could reach ~50 million (5 crore) end‑of‑life or aging vehicles by 2030 if trends continue.
  • This doesn’t automatically mean 5 crore unfit vehicles, but that’s the potential stock of old vehicles that may require testing, scrapping, or compliance checks.
🧠 8. Bottom Line: Not Guaranteed — But Likely Without Action

  • If vehicle ownership keeps rising and compliance/testing remains weak, india could indeed have millions of old, higher‑emission vehicles by 2030.
  • Active implementation of fitness tests, scrappage incentives, and compliance enforcement can prevent most of these from remaining on the road.
 

Disclaimer:

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any agency, organization, employer, or company. All information provided is for general informational purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, we make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the information contained herein. Readers are advised to verify facts and seek professional advice where necessary. Any reliance placed on such information is strictly at the reader’s own risk.

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