India’s Export Engine Is on Fire — And the Govt Is Bringing a Water Bottle

SIBY JEYYA

THE U.S. JUST FIRED AN ECONOMIC MISSILE AT INDIA. AND WE ARE PATCHING THE HOLE WITH BAND-AIDS.


The united states — our largest export market, our so-called “strategic partner,” the country that lectures the world on free trade — has slapped a 50% tariff on indian goods, the highest in the world. Not on China. Not on Russia.


On India.


The result?
Indian exports to the U.S. collapsed 12% in a single month.


Entire sectors:

  • Engineering goods ✔️

  • Textiles ✔️

  • Gems & jewellery ✔️
    are in freefall.


Millions of indian workers — the people who stitch, polish, manufacture, and ship our economic hopes — are suddenly staring at a cliff.


The government’s response?
A ₹25,000 crore “Export Promotion Mission” stretched over six years.


That’s ₹4,166 crore a year.

For a market worth ₹6,30,000 crore.


This isn’t a policy.
This is sarcasm dressed as governance.




🟥 THE TARIFF EARTHQUAKE: AMERICA JUST MADE india 50% MORE EXPENSIVE OVERNIGHT


A 50% tariff is not a “trade disagreement.”
It’s a penalty, a punishment, an economic blockade, wearing a suit.


Let’s be brutally clear:

  • No American buyer will pay 50% more for indian goods.

  • indian exporters cannot reduce their prices by 50% — unless they enjoy bankruptcy.


  • And finding new buyers? New markets? New agreements?
    That takes years, not quarters.


Meanwhile, indian workers don't have years.
They need food next week.




🟧 THE EXPORT COLLAPSE: WHEN YOUR ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN GETS AMPUTATED


Engineering Goods: Massacred

A double-digit drop already.
More coming.


Textiles: Bleeding

Tiruppur, Karur, Noida, ludhiana — the factories that kept India’s soft power alive for decades — are now running on half-capacity, if at all.


Gems & Jewellery: Collapsing

Surat’s polishers — already reeling from a global slump — now data-face their worst-ever market conditions.

This is not a downturn.
This is a controlled demolition of India’s export backbone.




🟦 THE GOVT’S RESPONSE: A BAND-AID ON A BULLET WOUND


₹25,000 crore over 6 years

Sounds big, until you break it down:


₹4,166 crore per year.

Against a U.S. export volume of ₹6,30,000 crore.

This is the equivalent of your house burning down and the fire brigade showing up with a damp cloth.


₹20,000 crore collateral-free credit

Good for survival.
Good for breathing room.
Good for headlines.


But utterly useless when your biggest customer just made your product unaffordable.

Liquidity can’t fix math.
Cash flow can’t fix pricing.
Loans can’t fix tariffs.




🟩 THE WORKER CRISIS: ‘LONG-TERM STRATEGY’ DOESN’T FEED people TODAY


Your textile worker in Tiruppur…
Your precision machinist in Coimbatore…
Your jewellery-polisher in Surat…
Your auto-component fabricator in Chennai…


These people do not live on policy papers.
They do not eat assurances.
They cannot feed their families with “we are examining alternatives.”

They need orders.
They need markets.
They need buyers.
They need demand — not schemes.




🟫 THE REALITY: THIS ISN’T A DOMESTIC PROBLEM. THIS IS A DIPLOMATIC FAILURE.


You cannot “incentivise exports” to the U.S.
When the U.S. decides to kneecap you with tariffs.


This is not an internal economics problem.
This is geopolitical sabotage dressed up as trade policy.

And no government — ANY government — can fix it with subsidy crumbs.


What india needs is:

  • High-level diplomatic pushback

  • Trade retaliation where necessary

  • Allied-country coalitions against tariff weapons

  • Alternate market acceleration

  • Buyer diversification incentives

  • Immediate protection for vulnerable sectors


But above all:

A strategy that matches the scale of the attack.



🟪 FINAL WORD:


YOU CAN’T FIGHT A 50% TARIFF WITH 4,000 CRORE.**

india is facing a once-in-a-generation export shock — engineered by the world’s largest economy.
Millions of jobs are at risk.


Entire supply chains are crumbling.
And the proposed “solution” barely amounts to a consolation prize.


This is not the time for Band-Aids.
This is not the time for optics.
This is the time for policy warfare.


Because when a superpower hits you with a 50% tariff, you don’t respond with a brochure.

You respond with a strategy.

Real strategy.

Before the factories fall silent.




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